Primary rule
131 betsCombined close
Glicko and market agree the matchup is close.
Hit rate45.0%ROI-17.3%Units-22.70
Strategy lab
Test close-match Over strategies against leakage-safe historical features.
Close matchup → Over
A match qualifies only when both the pre-match Glicko rating gap and market probability gap are inside your limits. Returns use one unit at the recorded opening Over price.
Model comparisonSame window · line · history requirement
Alternate signal
321 betsGlicko close
Pre-match league rating gap only.
Hit rate49.2%ROI-9.7%Units-31.19
Alternate signal
163 betsMarket close
Opening no-vig moneyline probability gap only.
Hit rate46.0%ROI-15.6%Units-25.36
Alternate signal
168 betsRecent form close
Players' pre-match L10 win rates are close.
Hit rate49.4%ROI-9.4%Units-15.85
131Qualifying bets59W · 72L · 0P
45.0%Hit ratepushes excluded
-22.70Unitsone unit per bet
-17.3%ROIopening Over odds
By total lineSample matters
75.588 bets46.6%-14.6%
76.522 bets22.7%-58.1%
77.510 bets40.0%-26.3%
78.59 bets88.9%+63.5%
80.51 bets100.0%+85.0%
79.51 bets0.0%-100.0%
By leagueTop samples
TT Cup101 bets48.5%-10.9%
Czech Liga Pro16 bets31.2%-42.7%
Setka Cup13 bets38.5%-29.5%
TT Elite Series1 bets0.0%-100.0%
Recent qualifying matchesLatest 100
DateMatchLeagueLine / priceTotalResultUnits